Analysis of the robot industry chain --- RV reducer
工业机器人 需要的精密减速器中所需的 RV 减速器占比约为 60%~80% ，是大量使用的关键零部件。 Generally, the required RV reducer in the precision reducer required by an industrial robot accounts for about 60% to 80% , which is a key component used in large quantities. RV 减速器的 A 股上市公司：双环传动和秦川机床。 This article also mainly discusses A- share listed companies that produce RV reducers : Shuanghuan Transmission and Qinchuan Machine Tool.
RV 减速器都未实现量产。 Unfortunately, mass production of RV reducers has not yet been implemented in either company . 15 年 6 月才提出非公开增发方案，募资 12 亿用于 4 个项目，其中 RV 减速器产业化项目投资额为 3 亿元。 Shuanghuan Transmission only proposed a non-public issuance plan in June of 2015. It raised 1.2 billion for 4 projects, of which RV reducer industrialization project investment amounted to 300 million yuan.
2 年，建成后 3 年达产，项目完全达产后将形成年产 6 万套工业机器人 RV 减速器的生产能力。 The construction period of the project is 2 years, and the production will be completed 3 years after completion. After the project is fully completed, it will form a production capacity of 60,000 sets of industrial robot RV reducers per year .
Shuanghuan Transmission is a complete vehicle (machine) gear manufacturer, the upstream is the steel industry, and the downstream terminal is an automobile manufacturer. The market is extremely fragmented, with many peers, and the market share of its main products is not high.
Gears for passenger cars and commercial vehicles, and gears for construction machinery are the main products. The revenue basically depends on the purchase of large orders from downstream automobile manufacturers. The advantage is that the business is relatively stable. The disadvantages are that the bargaining power is not strong, the payment cycle is slow, and a large number of accounts receivable is easily formed. In summary, the position of Shuanghuan Transmission in the entire industrial chain is relatively weak.
Strategically, the gear business remains the focus of the company. “ 地产销 ” 的产业布局，依然是双环未来最重要的发展战略。 Supplying spare parts for various auto manufacturers and realizing the industrial layout of " real estate sales " will still be Shuanghuan's most important development strategy in the future. 机器人 减速器 为首的新产业项目，只能退居二线。 New industrial projects led by robot reducers can only be relegated to the second line.
“ 三航两机关键件 ” 、 “ 汽车自动变速器 ” 更要向新能源电动汽车领域延伸。 In addition to doing a good job of machine tools, Qin Chuan also needs to do a good job of " three-aircraft two-machine key parts " and " automatic transmissions " . Ok. . . Looks like there are words such as financial leasing companies and factoring companies. Where is the robot reducer planned? Behind it.
“AT 内齿圈 ” 、 “ 智能制造 ” 和 “ 海上平台 ” 等领域。 Here again appeared the "AT ring gear " , " intelligent manufacturing " and " offshore platform " and other fields. RV 减速器作为公司未来的战略重点。 In summary, it is clear that Qin Chuan did not regard the RV reducer as the company's future strategic focus.
At this point, people who are not familiar with Qin Chuan will definitely feel that the management of this company is too good, while the main business of the machine tool is done well, so many new businesses can be taken into account. 5 年的营运状况。 Whether this is the case, let's take a look at the company 's operating conditions in the past 5 years.
As shown in the figure, no net cash flow is positive for one year, indicating that the company loses money every year. Not to mention free cash flow, no money is made, and no penny should be spent. Such enterprises are really powerless.